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3/01/2008

Complete Scroll Chances Guide

Table of Contents

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1.0: Introduction

1.1: Update Log

1.2: Search

1.3: 60% Scrolls

1.4: 10% Scrolls

1.5: Special Thanks and Notes mesos


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1.0: Introduction

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Ever found yourself wondering "If I scroll this, what are the chances

I'll get a godly item and how likely is it that I'll phail completely?"

Well, if you have then the solution is here. This guide lists all the

60% and 10% scrolls success rates from 1 scroll all the way up to 10,

hopefully making your life a whole lot easier.


For more complicated scrolling combinations like 5 60% scrolls and 1

10% scroll you抣l have to put in some of the work yourself as there are

far too many combinations for one person to do. To work it out you

simply multiply result A by result B.


Example- To work out the chance of three 60% scrolls working and a 10%

scroll working I would first find the chance of the three 60%'s (21.6%)

and then of the one 10% (10%) and multiply them by each-other.


So,


0.216 x 0.1 = 0.0216


Then multiply it by 100 to get a percentage.


0.0216 x 100 = 2.16


2.16% chance that all the scrolls will work.


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1.1: Update Log

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v1.0: The guide is born.

v1.1: Guide format changed into neater layout.

v1.2: Corrections made, dashes deleted, replaced with spaces.

V1.3: Random capitals deleted and fixed, Table of Contents changed.

V1.4: Legal Information updated, Contact Information updated.

V1.5: Cleaned up some more


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1.2: Search

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To save you the hassle of searching through the entire guide a search

function has been included. To use it simply press Ctrl + F and type in

the code for the set of scrolls you would like.


Example: When searching for 5 60% scrolls press Ctrl + F and type [560].


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1.3: 60% Scrolls

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One 60% scroll [160] mesos


Chance of one scroll working: 60%

Chance of all scrolls failing: 40%


Two 60% scrolls [260]


Chance of two scrolls working: 36%

Chance of one scroll working: 48%

Chance of all scrolls failing: 16%


Three 60% scrolls [360]


Chance of three scrolls working: 21.6%

Chance of two scrolls working: 43.2%

Chance of one scroll working: 28.8%

Chance of all scrolls failing: 6.4%


Four 60% scrolls [460]


Chance of four scrolls working: 12.96%

Chance of three scrolls working: 34.56%

Chance of two scrolls working: 34.56%

Chance of one scroll working: 15.36%

Chance of all scrolls failing: 2.56%


Five 60% scrolls [560]


Chance of five scrolls working: 7.776%

Chance of four scrolls working: 25.92%

Chance of three scrolls working: 34.56%

Chance of two scrolls working: 23.04%

Chance of one scroll working: 7.68%

Chance of all scrolls failing: 1.024%


Six 60% scrolls [660]


Chance of six scrolls working: 4.6656%

Chance of five scrolls working: 18.6624%

Chance of four scrolls working: 31.104%

Chance of three scrolls working: 27.648%

Chance of two scrolls working: 13.824%

Chance of one scroll working: 3.6864%

Chance of all scrolls failing: 0.4096%


Seven 60% scrolls [760]


Chance of seven scrolls working: 2.79936%

Chance of six scrolls working: 13.06368%

Chance of five scrolls working: 26.12736%

Chance of four scrolls working: 29.0304%

Chance of three scrolls working: 19.3536%

Chance of two scrolls working: 7.74144%

Chance of one scroll working: 1.72032%

Chance of all scrolls failing: 0.016384%


Eight 60% scrolls [860]


Chance of eight scrolls working: 0.679616%

Chance of seven scrolls working: 8.957952%

Chance of six scrolls working: 20.901888%

Chance of five scrolls working: 27.869184%

Chance of four scrolls working: 23.22432%

Chance of three scrolls working: 12.386304%

Chance of two scrolls working: 4.128768%

Chance of one scroll working: 0.786432%

Chance of all scrolls failing: 0.065536%


Nine 60% scrolls [960] mesos


Chance of nine scrolls working: 1.0077696%

Chance of eight scrolls working: 6.0466176%

Chance of seven scrolls working: 16.1243136%

Chance of six scrolls working: 25.0822656%

Chance of five scrolls working: 25.0822656%

Chance of four scrolls working: 16.7215104%

Chance of three scrolls working: 7.4317824%

Chance of two scrolls working: 2.1233664%

Chance of one scroll working: 0.3538944%

Chance of all scrolls failing: 0.0262144%


Ten 60% scrolls [1060]


Chance of ten scrolls working: 0.60466176%

Chance of nine scrolls working: 4.0310784%

Chance of eight scrolls working: 12.0932352%

Chance of seven scrolls working: 21.4990848%

Chance of six scrolls working: 25.0822656%

Chance of five scrolls working: 20.06581248%

Chance of four scrolls working: 11.1476736%

Chance of three scrolls working: 4.2467328%

Chance of two scrolls working: 1.0616832%

Chance of one scroll working: 0.1572864%

Chance of all scrolls failing: 0.01048576%


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1.4: 10% scrolls

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One 10% scroll [110]


Chance of one scroll working: 10%

Chance of all scrolls Failing: 90%


Two 10% scrolls [210]


Chance of two scrolls working: 1%

Chance of one scroll working: 18%

Chance of all scrolls failing: 81%


Three 10% scrolls [310]


Chance of three scrolls working: 0.1%

Chance of two scrolls working: 2.7%

Chance of one scroll working: 24.3%

Chance of all scrolls failing: 72.9%


Four 10% scrolls [410]


Chance of four scrolls working: 0.01%

Chance of three scrolls working: 0.36%

Chance of two scrolls working: 4.86%

Chance of one scroll working: 29.16%

Chance of all scrolls failing: 65.61%


Five 10% scrolls [510]


Chance of five scrolls working: 0.001%

Chance of four scrolls working: 0.045%

Chance of three scrolls working: 0.81%

Chance of two scrolls working: 7.29%

Chance of one scroll working: 32.805%

Chance of all scrolls failing: 59.049%


Six 10% scrolls [610]


Chance of six scrolls working: 0.0001%

Chance of five scrolls working: 0.0054%

Chance of four scrolls working: 0.1215%

Chance of three scrolls working: 1.458%

Chance of two scrolls working: 9.8415%

Chance of one scroll working: 35.4294%

Chance of all scrolls failing: 53.1441%


Seven 10% scrolls [710]


Chance of seven scrolls working: 0.00001%

Chance of six scrolls working: 0.00063%

Chance of five scrolls working: 0.01701%

Chance of four scrolls working: 0.25515%

Chance of three scrolls working: 2.29635%

Chance of two scrolls working: 12.40029%

Chance of one scroll working: 37.20087%

Chance of all scrolls failing: 47.82969%


Eight 10% scrolls [810]


Chance of eight scrolls working: 0.000001%

Chance of seven scrolls working: 0.000072%

Chance of six scrolls working: 0.002268%

Chance of five scrolls working: 0.040824%

Chance of four scrolls working: 0.45927%

Chance of three scrolls working: 3.306744%

Chance of two scrolls working: 14.880348%

Chance of one scroll working: 38.263752%

Chance of all scrolls failing: 43.046721%


Nine 10% scrolls [910]


Chance of nine scrolls working: 0.0000001%

Chance of eight scrolls working: 0.0000081%

Chance of seven scrolls working: 0.0002916%

Chance of six scrolls working: 0.0061236%

Chance of five scrolls working: 0.0826686%

Chance of four scrolls working: 0.7440174%

Chance of three scrolls working: 4.4641044%

Chance of two scrolls working: 17.2186884%

Chance of one scroll working: 38.7420489%

Chance of all scrolls failing: 38.7420489%


Ten 10% scrolls [1010]


Chance of ten scrolls working: 0.00000001%

Chance of nine scrolls working: 0.0000009%

Chance of eight scrolls working: 0.00003645%

Chance of seven scrolls working: 0.0008748%

Chance of six scrolls working: 0.0137781%

Chance of five scrolls working: 0.14880348%

Chance of four scrolls working: 1.1160261%

Chance of three scrolls working: 5.7395628%

Chance of two scrolls working: 19.37102445%

Chance of one scroll working: 38.7420489%

Chance of all scrolls failing: 34.86784401


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1.5: Special Thanks and Notes

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Special thanks goes out to my guild, LambOfGod, for being the best

Guild ever!


Special thanks to Sicangu for being native american


More thanks to CyrusLK for revamping the layout and helping me sort

out some issues.


I plan to add 30% and 70% scroll information soon. (Stop emailing me!)

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